Democrats are poised to have a strong night in Tuesday, November 3rd’s midterm elections. Will it be a splash or a wave? And will that wave reach South Carolina?
The statewide picture
Amid a strong Democratic year, with Republicans feeling the brunt of dismay and frustration among American voters, South Carolina’s statewide Republican ticket appears to be in a strong position to sweep the races.
The ticket, led by Attorney General Alan Wilson’s (R-Lexington) campaign for governor against State Rep. Jermaine Johnson (D-Richland), continues to benefit from the state’s partisan lean.
One race worth watching is state treasurer, where Curtis Loftis (R-Lexington) is seeking a fifth term. He faces Vincent Coe (D-Florence). In 2025, the state senate voted to remove Loftis following a $1.8 billion accounting error during the transition from an old computer accounting system. Certain members of the senate have been intent on getting rid of Loftis since he was first elected to the office. The house declined to take up the matter.
Coe has launched no noticeable or widespread attacks over the accounting controversy, so one would presume Loftis is in a strong position for re-election. While there has been polling on other statewide races, I have seen no publicly available polling on the treasurer’s race.
The tight U.S. Senate race and what could have been for the GOP
U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-Oconee) died unexpectedly on July 11th. The events that followed unfolded at breakneck speed. President Trump and outgoing Gov. Henry McMaster seemingly decided within hours of Graham’s death that his sister, Darline Graham Nordone (R-Lexington), would be appointed to serve out the remainder of his term. Shortly thereafter, it was decided that Nordone would run for the full term.
A fast-and-furious, month-long election followed, with the president throwing his full-throated support behind Nordone. Nordone and U.S. Rep. Ralph Norman (R-York) advanced from a 10-person field to a runoff. Nordone won by a 52.5%-47.5% margin. The Trump endorsement won again.
President Trump has accomplished many things, but for the past decade, he has repeatedly cut off his nose to spite his face when it comes to political endorsements. A mixture of both candidates who cripple his agenda and many bad general election candidates.
I could put all the blame on him, but voters are also supposed to use their brains.
Darline Graham Nordone has proven to be an uncharismatic and ineffective campaigner who struggles to raise money, doesn’t understand the issues and leaves serious questions about whether she has ever voted for Trump or even been a Republican. She also lied about her opponents during the primary, behaving like any other run-of-the-mill politician.
Nordone now faces Socialist Dr. Annie Andrews (D-Charleston), Mark Hackett (Constitutional-Greenville) and Dr. Kasie Whitener (Libertarian-Richland).
Nordone and the establishment class have spent considerable time belittling those who supported someone else in the primary. But Nordone’s weaknesses have opened the door for third-party candidates and a growing write-in effort for Norman to collectively attract support that would ordinarily go to the Republican nominee. Many conservatives are simply tired of being handed nominees who repeatedly fail them.
For his part, Norman has repeatedly lived up to his pledge to vote for Nordone. He will not campaign for somebody who ran a nasty campaign and who doesn’t share his conservative viewpoint. Neither will I.
Whitener has gained some traction over the past few months, while Hackett has aired ads in the final stretch that align with the conservative Republican platform. Neither is going to win, and the write-in effort is not going to win either.
These defections from the Republican nominee were entirely avoidable. The establishment’s mistakes have been overwhelming, and the consequences are being felt by the party, the state, and the country.
The bottom line
Republicans are primed to sweep the statewide races because of the state’s partisan advantage, including the U.S. Senate race. However, it is unlikely that the rest of the Republican ticket will outperform Nordone by the margins some polls suggest.
Polls have the Senate race neck-and-neck. I don’t take polls literally. Polling is difficult, and there is almost always some degree of bias. However, valuable information can be gleaned by looking beyond the headline numbers and examining the underlying data. Two recent polls are worth pointing out.
The Trafalgar Group conducted a poll from October 16-18 that gave Nordone a 49%-46% lead. Trafalgar is the Holy Grail for Republicans, so this is certainly a close race, well within the margin of error. However, that same poll gave Republicans a 59%-29% advantage among those surveyed as likely voters. South Carolina is nowhere near a two-to-one Republican advantage. The poll also showed large Republican advantages in several other statewide races. But when the partisan makeup of the sample is so heavily skewed toward Republicans, those margins aren’t nearly as lopsided as they might initially appear.
A Siena College/New York Times poll conducted October 19-26 shows a dead heat, with both candidates at 48%. More interestingly, the poll shows Andrews winning in the heart of the Bible Belt: Greenville and Spartanburg counties. There is no universe in which that happens, even if voters in those counties aren’t particularly fond of Nordone - which they aren’t.
Many point to the 2020 re-election campaign for the late senator where internal and public polling showed a neck-and-neck race between Graham and Jamie Harrison. That was a completely different race with hundreds of millions of dollars involved and a much better environment for Republicans. That doesn’t check out.
Nordone should win, but it never had to be this way.
South Carolina, let’s do better. Get more involved. Be better informed.
